BlackBull Markets

Gold has climbed following softer-than-expected US economic data, which has strengthened speculation for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. ADP employment figures showed just 37K new jobs, well below the 111K forecast. President Donald Trump, posting on Truth Social, called on “too slow” Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates immediately. The repeated tests of the $3,400 level suggest that selling pressure at this zone could be weakening. Lower interest rates tend to support gold prices, as the metal offers no yield. However, a daily close below the recent swing low of $3,280 would undermine the pattern.

XAUUSD could potentially be presenting a multi-timeframe bullish bias, with the trend analyzer indicating strong uptrends from M30 through H4, and a weaker uptrend on the D1 timeframe. The price has moved above the 20, 50, and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs), potentially suggesting strengthening short-term momentum. The 200 EMA near $3,254 has held as dynamic support and marked the low of the recent retracement. If the price maintains above the 100 EMA and breaks through near-term resistance at $3,320–$3,340, there is potential for a move toward the previous high around $3,360. Traders might like to watch for confirmation from volume around resistance before positioning for breakout trades. Caution might be warranted if the price dips below $3,254, as it may indicate a deeper correction.

GameStop has disclosed a $500 million investment in Bitcoin, marking its first significant move into the crypto space. The video game retailer is sitting on $4.76 billion in cash and hasn’t disclosed a limit on future purchases. GameStop shares fell 10% following the announcement, while Bitcoin pulled back toward $107,000. A 14% rally would be needed for BTC to reach the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $122,000, while $103,800 could be a key support level where we previously saw consolidation. CEO Ryan Cohen addressed the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas via pre-recorded video Wednesday too, citing macroeconomic concerns as a key driver behind the company’s decision. These likely include rising U.S. debt levels and trump tariffs.

Gold recently broke above a descending trendline and reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,333.05. The bullish momentum now faces resistance near the 0.618 retracement at $3,366.29 and the $3,389.94 zone (0.786). A clean breakout could open the way toward the $3,440–$3,507 area, aligning with the 1.0 and 1.618 Fib extensions. The rally follows rising trade tensions, as President Trump announced 50% tariffs on EU imports from June 1st and threatened Apple with 25% tariffs unless it relocates iPhone production to the U.S. Further fuel for gold comes from the proposed ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ which includes major tax cuts and spending reforms. Expected to add $3–5 billion to U.S. debt, the bill passed the House and now moves to the Senate.

Gold prices have stabilized today after experiencing an earlier decline that represents the fourth dip down to the $3260 level over the past few sessions. The repeated defense of this support level could indicate strong buyer interest at these prices. Recent reports suggest an easing of trade tensions which might be weakening demand for gold. But have tensions really eased to any great extent? Commerce Sectary Howard Lutnick announced yesterday the U.S. is close to 1 trade agreement with 1 mystery trade partner (rumored to be India? But why not brag about that if true) isn't the kind of progress that consoles me. But is it time to buy? The consistent support at $3,260 coupled with a potential move above $3,375 could provide the technical confirmation needed for renewed confidence in this kind of trade.

J.P. Morgan now forecasts gold to average $3,675 per ounce by year-end and joins Goldman Sachs in projecting a move beyond $4,000 next year. Spot gold has gained 29% year-to-date, setting 28 record highs and briefly surpassing $3,500 for the first time yesterday. According to the bank, the main downside risk remains a sudden decline in central bank demand. Key support has potentially shifted higher, with $3,286 now seen as a potential pivot—aligned with both the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Gold has broken above $3,400 for the first time, setting a new all-time high as investor confidence in the United States continues to decline. Citi forecasts gold could reach $3,500 within the next three months. However, this projection might be underestimating Trump’s potential to further undermine confidence in the US. On Monday, President Trump intensified pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Last week the President said, "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough,". A move to dismiss Powell would likely trigger significant market volatility. Markets generally view Powell as a stabilizing figure, and history shows that a less independent central bank is less effective at keeping inflation under control. I think it might be fair to wonder what a Federal Reserve Chairman Kid Rock would do for the price of gold.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is likely to fuel higher inflation and slow economic growth. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, Powell said, “Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty, and that means volatility.” His comments were quickly reflected in the markets, with the Dow shedding 1.7%, the S&P 500 falling 2.3%, and the Nasdaq tumbling 3.4%. Meanwhile, gold extended its rally to a new record high of $3,337. What may not be uncertain is the Fed’s next rate decision. According to Polymarket data, there's now an 89% chance the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its May meeting—up from 69% just a month ago. Polymarket is also pricing the odds of Powell being replaced by Trump with a more servile director this year at 17% (which could likely send the odds of a rate cut in May shooting up).

Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued another round of bullish forecasts for gold, citing ongoing market uncertainty (i.e., tariffs). Goldman analysts now expect gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential rise to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS holds a slightly more conservative view, projecting $3,500 by December 2025. Technically, gold has pulled back from new all-time highs seen during the Asian session but potentially remains in a strong uptrend. With prices trading well above both the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA, shallow retracements may find support, especially as tariff-related risks persist for at least the next 90 days.

Despite pressure stemming from President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs, analysts at Bernstein note Bitcoin’s relative resilience, particularly on shorter-term time frames where a double bottom pattern suggests underlying bullish interest. Bitcoin’s ‘safe haven’ appeal may be resonating with investors more than previously. However, the longer-term chart reveals price action still maintained within a multi-month downtrend. After briefly rising above $80,000 on April 9 (peaking at $83,000), the price has since pulled back, confirming last week’s losses and raising the risk of further downside.